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| #646781 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:35 PM 21.Nov.2013) TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013 MELISSA HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 9 HOURS. IT IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT WAS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION...AND IT IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 17C-18C. BASED ON THIS...MELISSA HAS BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KT BASED ON TWO RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES...AND THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED USING THESE DATA. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS POST-TROPICAL...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/24. MELISSA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AND DECELERATE ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE INTO WEAKER STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON MELISSA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 41.5N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1200Z 42.1N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0000Z 42.2N 20.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/1200Z 41.4N 17.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0000Z 39.9N 15.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
