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| #6529 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:20 PM 29.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REACHED THE EYE OF FRANCES AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 949 MB IN A 12 NMI EYE WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KNOTS. A DROP MEASURED 127 KNOTS AT THE 913 MB LEVEL BUT THIS NUMBER IS NOT VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS. SINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ON SATELLITE...THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH A LESS DISTINCT EYE. FRANCES COULD EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE...BUT MOST LIKELY ...THE HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE. FRANCES HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AS FORECAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS RIDGE WILL FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE TRACK A LITTLE MORE THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS WHICH PREVIOUSLY BROUGH THE HURRICANE TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO FLORIDA BUT AT A HIGHER LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEXT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DATA GATHER FROM THE GPS DROPSONDES TO BE LAUNCH FROM THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR THE IMPACT ON THESE NEW OBSERVATIONS IN TONIGHT'S RUNS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 18.8N 55.6W 115 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 19.1N 57.0W 120 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 19.5N 59.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.0N 62.0W 120 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 20.5N 64.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 69.5W 120 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 73.0W 125 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 76.5W 125 KT |
