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| #6585 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 29.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND AIRFORCE GLOBAL. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KTS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SAME SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST. ALSO...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AND...BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE MERGED WITH OR BEEN ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON. THIS MERGER OR ABSORPTION MEANS THAT NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY. HOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 33.2N 71.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 35.1N 71.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 37.9N 71.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 41.2N 70.4W 45 KT...ABSORBED |
