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| #6620 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 30.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.5 FROM TAFB...T3.0 FROM SAB AND T2.5 FROM AIRFORCE GLOBAL. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN. INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/16. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN KEEPS HERMINE AS A SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT DOES NOT MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AS PREVIOUS THOUGHT. HERMINE ACTUALLY ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AND DOES EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE OR TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD BUT SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY THAT TIME. THUS...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 34.6N 71.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 37.0N 71.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 41.5N 69.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 31/1800Z 45.7N 65.1W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
