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| #6821 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 31.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004 THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND WSR-88D DATA FROM BROOKHAVEN NEW YORK SHOW A FAIR RADAR PRESENTATION. SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY. GASTON IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE VERY SOON...SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS. GASTON'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN A FEW DAYS. THE STORM HAS BEEN ACCELERATING...AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/18. GASTON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN FORWARD SPEEDS AMONGST THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 39.5N 71.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 68.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 43.0N 62.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/0000Z 46.0N 53.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1200Z 49.5N 44.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z...ABSORBED |
