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| #6882 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 31.Aug.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004 2100Z TUE AUG 31 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.9W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 170SE 170SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.9W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.1N 68.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.7N 73.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.6N 78.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.1N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA |
