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| #6888 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 31.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004 ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LESS TROPICAL AS IT APPEARS HAVE BECOME INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND. HOWEVER...WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GASTON WILL BE PASSING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER SHORTLY AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...SO IT SHOULD SOON BE TRANFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE. THERE HAS BEEN MORE ACCELERATION...AND THE FORWARD SPEED IS NOW NEAR 25 KT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE FUTURE FORWARD SPEED BUT AGREE ON SOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION AS GASTON...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 40.7N 68.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 42.5N 64.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 45.0N 57.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/0600Z 47.5N 48.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1800Z 50.0N 38.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
