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| #6890 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 31.Aug.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004 ...SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS WITH 140 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FRANCES HAS BEEN TRACKED WITH A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM... NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE FORWARD SPEED OF HURRICANE FRANCES HAS INCREASED AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES TODAY. LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...20.5 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA |
