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| #6984 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 01.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED SEP 01 2004 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS...WINDS INCREASING AT GRAND TURK... AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES... CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES THE ABACOS...ANDROS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND 735 MILES...1180 KM...EAST -SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THE GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. GRAND TURK REPORTED WINDS OF 36 MPH...57 KM/HR EARLIER TODAY. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER TODAY WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 69.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA |
