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| #698471 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 01.Jul.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours. The main area of deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in enhanced infrared images. Surface observations and Doppler radar velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far, and the current intensity is held at 30 kt. This is also in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about 260/2. The overall steering scenario seems relatively straightforward. A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over the north-central United States is predicted by the global models to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3 days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional increase in forward speed later in the forecast period. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution. Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone during the next 72 hours or so. The official intensity forecast now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the latest intensity model consensus. By the end of the forecast period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in extratropical transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 27.6N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 29.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 30.8N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 34.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
