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| #698781 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 02.Jul.2014) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/ VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 79.1W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 79.1W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 79.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
