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| #698782 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 02.Jul.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50 knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands. The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the consensus of the models. Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days. Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance, the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the area under hurricane watch. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114756.shtml? inundation#contents FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 29.1N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
