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| #699035 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:58 PM 02.Jul.2014) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 800 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...ARTHUR JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 79.2W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
