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| #6992 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 01.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST WED SEP 01 2004 ...FRANCES NEARING THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANS AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 85 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND 700 MILES...1125 KM...EAST -SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. GRAND TURK REPORTED WINDS OF 36 MPH...57 KM/HR EARLIER TODAY. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER TODAY WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES. A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CORE OF FRANCES REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB... 28.56 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...21.8 N... 70.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA |
