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| #700020 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 05.Jul.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that Arthur is rapidly losing tropical characteristics. The low-level center is now displaced from the convection, and the rain shield has expanded significantly toward the northwest. However,the circulation is still vigorous given that there was a peak wind of 83 knots at 850 mb reported by the Air Force plane. These strong winds are not reaching the surface, and the initial intensity is set at 60 knots based on SFMR reports. Arthur should complete extratropical transition later today and should weaken. Arthur has slowed down as anticipated and is moving toward the northeast at 19 knots. The cyclone should continue on this general track steered by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. In fact, most of the global models show Arthur becoming associated with this trough in about 12 to 24 hours. Both intensity and track forecasts during the post-tropical stage have been adjusted based on input from the OPC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 43.1N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/1800Z 49.5N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0600Z 52.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0600Z 60.0N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 58.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 62.1N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
