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| #704398 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 22.Jul.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0. As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two, and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to 3 days. The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight, but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt. The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge during the next few days. The track guidance is tightly clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle. As a result, the new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 12.2N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.0N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
