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| #704511 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 22.Jul.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The satellite presentation of the depression has become less impressive this afternoon. The coverage and structure of the cold cloud tops has decreased, and visible imagery suggests that the low-level center is located on the east side of the convective canopy. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the dry air surrounding the cyclone already appears to be taking a toll on the system. The dry air and an increase in shear should result in gradual weakening and the cyclone opening up into a trough in a couple of days near the Lesser Antilles, although a 48-hour remnant low point is provided for continuity. It is also possible that the system could dissipate even sooner. The initial motion estimate is 280/16, and a quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as the depression is steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one and is close to the latest GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.2N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
