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| #704579 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 22.Jul.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection than it was earlier today. Satellite images indicate that the convective pattern consists of a small circular area of thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding features surrounding it. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in shear. These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry air mass should prevent significant strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48 h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt. An even faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday or on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.4N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.1N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.9N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
