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| #7047 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 01.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED SEP 01 2004 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES BATTERING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH... INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 585 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRANCES REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH...220 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...GRAND TURK ISLAND REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 72 MPH...115 KM/HR...AS THE EYE OF FRANCES PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST. HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE THAT DAMAGE TO TREES AND ROOFS HAS OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHRA ISLAND...AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART |
