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| #707050 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:43 AM 02.Aug.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 200 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 ...BERTHA RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 64.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. BERTHA IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE SATURDAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
