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| #707144 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 02.Aug.2014) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 Bertha remains a disorganized tropical cyclone this morning, as even with the aid of Doppler radar data it is difficult to find a closed circulation. The low-level center is near the western edge of the main convective mass, which indicates the system is still affected by vertical wind shear. However, the convection has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours, and the outflow is improving over the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a combination of continuity and Doppler radar data. The initial motion is 290/19. Bertha is approaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn northwest during the next 6-12 hours. A turn toward the north should occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States. After that, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is generally similar to the previous track. There has been a small westward shift during the first 12-24 hours, with the center now forecast to make landfall over the eastern Dominican Republic. Little change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours or so as Bertha deals with lingering shear, dry air entrainment, and passage over the mountains of Hispaniola. After that, the cyclone is expected to move into a more favorable environment that could allow strengthening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, calling for Bertha to become a hurricane for a short time after recurvature. It is possible that passage over the Dominican Republic could cause Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave. Should that happen, there would be a chance for regeneration when the system reaches the more favorable environment to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.8N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1200Z 21.2N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 04/0000Z 23.6N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.4N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 32.5N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 42.0N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
