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| #707597 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 04.Aug.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 In spite of its unimpressive appearance on satellite imagery, with scant evidence of banding features and relatively disorganized deep convection, aerial reconnaissance data indicate that Bertha has intensified into a hurricane. Flight-level, dropsonde, and SFMR winds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes support an intensity of 70 kt for this advisory. Bertha does have well-defined anticyclonic upper-level outflow over the eastern and southern portions of the circulation. Recent infrared imagery shows warming cloud tops, so the intensity is probably leveling off. Dynamical guidance predicts a very large increase in shear beginning in 24-36 hours, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin around that time. In about 72 hours, the global models show the cyclone interacting with a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of Newfoundland, so the NHC forecast shows Bertha becoming extratropical by that time. Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the motion is now 360/15 kt. The track forecast remains relatively straightforward. Over the next couple of days, Bertha should turn toward the northeast and accelerate in the flow between a mid-tropospheric anticyclone over the southwestern Atlantic and a broad trough moving off the United States east coast. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should continue moving quickly to the northeast or east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is not much different from the previous one, and close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 27.6N 73.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 30.0N 73.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 33.4N 72.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 36.3N 69.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 39.0N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 45.0N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 49.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 49.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
