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| #7116 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 02.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2004 THE HURRICANE REMAINS VERY WELL-ORGANIZED AND SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KNOTS AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASUREMENTS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125 KNOTS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY SOON. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL BUT FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT THIS MORNING IS THAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOW THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND GFDL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE HOLDING THE RIDGE STRONG AND LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER THAN THE EYE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT TIME FOR PREPARATIONS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.4N 73.9W 125 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 24.3N 75.4W 125 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 77.2W 125 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.4N 78.5W 125 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 27.0N 79.7W 125 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W 70 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 07/1200Z 34.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND |
