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| #712453 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 23.Aug.2014) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 800 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014 ...DEPRESSION JUST NORTHWEST OF OF PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 72.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE DATA FROM PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
