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| #713033 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 25.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 Based on a blend of SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind data collected by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft a little earlier this evening, Cristobal was upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Similar to Hurricane Bertha earlier this year in roughly the same location, this system's cloud pattern does not resemble that of a hurricane, with little or no evidence of banding on satellite images. Some additional strengthening is expected, however, since the SHIPS guidance shows a decrease in vertical shear during the next few days, and an increase in upper-level divergence is indicated by the global models. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and is close to the latest LGEM guidance. The center fixes by the NOAA aircraft indicated an eastward wobble several hours ago, but recent satellite imagery hints that a slow north-northeastward motion has resumed. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 030/2 kt. In spite of the erratic motion and eastward shift of the center, the track model guidance remains in good agreement that Cristobal will move along a track similar to the previous NHC forecast. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to move through a weakness between two mid-level high pressure areas. Thereafter, as Cristobal begins to enter the mid-latitude westerlies and a shortwave trough moves off the northeast United States coastline, the tropical cyclone should accelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic. The current official forecast is not much different from the previous one, and close to the GFS ensemble mean solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 25.1N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.9N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.3N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 31.8N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 34.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 39.0N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 45.0N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0000Z 51.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
