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| #713347 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 27.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 Some deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal during the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle. Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the center interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial intensity remains 70 kt, and another aircraft will be investigating the cyclone this afternoon. There is still some potential for Cristobal to strengthen as a tropical cyclone during the next day or so before it begins extratropical transition, which should be complete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday, and then slowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the IVCN intensity consensus while Cristobal remains a tropical cyclone. Cristobal has wobbled a little to the left this morning, with an initial motion estimate of 355/10. All of the guidance is unanimous in turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward during the next 24 hours and accelerating the cyclone into the mid-latitude westerlies. A continued northeasterly motion is expected through the remainder of the cyclone's life cycle. The track model guidance is tightly clustered, but the NHC forecast has shifted to the left of the previous one by about a half a degree due to the initial position and motion being to the left of the previous track. The new NHC track is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models through 72 hours, and a little south of that consensus at 96 hours. The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 31.8N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 34.0N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 36.5N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 39.6N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 43.5N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 56.0N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
