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| #713451 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 27.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014 Cristobal has a fairly circular area of deep convection over the estimated low-level center, with cloud tops occasionally to -70 deg C. The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The symmetric appearance of the cloud pattern suggests that vertical shear has not yet become very strong, but the latest SHIPS guidance indicates a significant increase in shear in 18-24 hours. The hurricane could strengthen some over the next day or two as a tropical cyclone, or due to baroclinic processes. The official intensity forecast is close to the intensity model consensus through 36 hours, and a little above it thereafter. Extratropical transition is likely to have occurred by 48 hours since the global models depict the system as fully embedded within a frontal zone by that time. Post-tropical Cristobal is likely to be an intense extratropical cyclone with winds to hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. The hurricane is beginning to accelerate northeastward, and the motion estimate is 050/17. The track forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. Cristobal is currently rounding the northwestern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the west-central Atlantic. A mid-latitude shortwave trough to the northwest of the hurricane should cause the hurricane, or its post-tropical counterpart, to accelerate further and move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is in good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA. The track, intensity and wind structure forecasts have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 34.1N 69.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 36.1N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 39.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 43.4N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 47.5N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 56.0N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 62.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
