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| #713504 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 28.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 Cristobal's satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts with a frontal zone. Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS ensemble mean. The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 35.6N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 37.8N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 41.5N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 46.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0600Z 50.0N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z 59.5N 28.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0600Z 63.0N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila |
