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| #713564 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 28.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 The satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more symmetric than at any earlier time during its life. The center is embedded within an area of deep convection and a warm spot has become evident in recent visible satellite images. T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 4.0 on the Dvorak Scale and the initial intensity is set at 65 kt. Some strengthening is expected today while the hurricane remains over warm water. The cyclone will begin to interact with a frontal zone tonight and should complete extratropical transition on Friday. The global models indicate that the extratropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next few days. The low is forecast to merge with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Cristobal is moving northeastward at about 23 kt. The cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies during the next day or so. The updated NHC track is close to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance envelope. The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts of the extratropical low have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 36.9N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 39.7N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 43.8N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 48.0N 43.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1200Z 51.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z 61.1N 25.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
