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| #714587 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 01.Sep.2014) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a well-defined center of circulation. The system has a curved band of deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Thus the system is being designated as a tropical depression at this time. The maximum winds reported by the aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt. Although the cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening. Dynamical models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36 hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall. After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The official wind speed forecast is a little above the intensity model consensus. The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11. The steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward. The flow to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36 hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 20.1N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 21.1N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 21.9N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 22.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch |
