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| #714930 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 02.Sep.2014) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 Radar and surface data from Mexico show that the center of Dolly is moving ashore just south of Tampico. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is in agreement with the earlier aircraft observations. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 1002 mb based on dropsonde data from both the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the NASA Global Hawk. Dolly should begin to weaken overnight while the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico within a day or so. The initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt. Dolly is forecast to continue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the GFS model. The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will continue during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 21.9N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 22.0N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0000Z 22.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
