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| #714988 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 03.Sep.2014) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of central Mexico. The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it dissipates. The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will continue during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven |
