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| #7160 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 02.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004 ALTHOUGH FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE REPRESENTATION ... DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY DISRUPTED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 120 KNOTS. THIS IS PROBABLY A MINOR FLUCTUATION ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CORE PROCESSES AND FRANCES COULD EASILY RE-INTENSIFY. NEVERTHELESS... FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL. FRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...FORCING FRANCES TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. ALL TRACK MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. DESPITE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT NECESSARY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 24.9N 76.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 77.8W 120 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 27.7N 80.5W 90 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 83.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 06/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 07/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND |
