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| #717041 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 12.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 The cloud pattern is a little more organized, and microwave data suggest that the center is more embedded within the deep convection. Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB,TAFB and objective numbers from CIMSS the winds are increased to 40 kt. This intensity is confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. The cyclone has a large low-level circulation and the upper-level outflow has improved. Most of the global models as well as SHIPS suggest a decrease in the wind shear during the next few days. In addition, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously warm water. This should result in gradual strengthening as indicated in the NHC forecast, which in fact is very close to the intensity consensus model ICON. The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 knots steered by the flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast in about 3 to 4 days when the ridge weakens. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus, which has remained in place from 06 to 12 UTC. The guidance in general is tighly clustered, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft is dropping numerous sondes near and around Edouard and these data are being ingested by global models to help with the initialization. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 18.5N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 19.2N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 20.5N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 21.8N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 23.0N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.5N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
