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| #717611 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 14.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 Edouard has become better organized this afternoon. The eye of the hurricane has again made an appearance in satellite images, and deep convection surrounding the center has increased in intensity and coverage during the past few hours. NOAA hurricane hunters investigated the system this afternoon and found maximum flight- level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. These data and the consensus Dvorak classifications of 4.5/77 kt at 1800 UTC, support raising the initial wind speed to 75 kt. Additional strengthening seems likely during the next couple of days while the hurricane remains over warm water and the shear lessens somewhat. The only potential inhibiting factor is the influence of dry air that is seen wrapping into the eastern side of the circulation. Steady weakening is expected beyond a couple of days when the cyclone moves over much cooler water and into a stable air mass, which will eventually cause extratropical transition to occur in about 5 days. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, with the current forecast showing a peak intensity in about two days followed by a steady decline after that. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300/13 kt, steered by a subtropical ridge centered to its north. This ridge is expected to weaken and shift eastward, and that should cause Edouard to gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days. By mid-week, Edouard is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude zonal flow that will cause the cyclone to turn toward the east. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west for the next few days, toward the latest guidance, and is similar to the previous advisory at 96 and 120 h. The NASA Global Hawk is currently dropping numerous dropsondes into and around the circulation of Edouard. These data will be useful in analyzing the intensity and structure of the hurricane, and should help the models better initialize the cyclone and its environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 25.4N 52.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 27.8N 55.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 29.3N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 31.2N 56.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 35.9N 53.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 40.1N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 41.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
