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| #717781 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 15.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger and more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly symmetric inner-core convective pattern. Despite the improved structure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt. Three NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and structure. Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13 kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to its north shifts eastward and weakens. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is steered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA guidance. Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours while the hurricane remains in favorable conditions. Beyond that time, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear should cause the system to weaken steadily. Post-tropical transition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be over sea surface temperature below 23 C. The post-tropical phase of the track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 27.3N 55.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 32.8N 56.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 35.4N 54.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 40.0N 45.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 40.5N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
