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| #718007 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 16.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Visible satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive satellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the central dense overcast. Edouard is upgraded to a major hurricane based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 102 kt from TAFB, an ADT estimate of 107 kt, and a recent SFMR surface wind of 97 kt in the southwest eyewall. Edouard is the first major hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since Sandy on October 25, 2012. Edouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next 12-18 hours while it remains in light shear conditions and over warm waters. A combination of decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late tomorrow. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the latest NHC forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and the intensity consensus. Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by day 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3 due to rather cool waters in the cyclone's path. The initial motion is gradually shifting to the right, now 345/11. Edouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high and will turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The interaction of the low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to become more divergent at long range, with the GFS and the GFDL models taking the cyclone well north of the Azores. However, the GFS ensemble is much farther southwest than the deterministic GFS, and is much more consistent with the previous forecast and the bulk of the guidance. Thus, I have elected to leave the NHC prediction virtually unchanged from the previous one, even though the model consensus is a fair distance to the northeast of the new official track at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 31.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 33.0N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 38.4N 50.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 40.3N 45.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 41.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 40.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/1200Z 38.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake |
