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| #718153 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 16.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 A 2145 UTC WindSat 37 GHZ composite image revealed two concentric rings, with both the inner and outer rings containing hurricane force winds as observed by a NOAA P-3 aircraft. Therefore, the 64- kt wind radii have been adjusted outward to 70 n mi over the southeast and southwest quadrants. Additionally, an earlier lower fuselage radar image from the NOAA P-3 indicated that the highest reflectivity DBZ values occurred in these quadrants. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is a compromise of the highest SFMR-observed surface wind of 73 kt, a peak flight-level wind of 81 kt, and a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the cyclone quickly moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and within increasing westerly shear. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous package and closely resembles the IVCN intensity consensus. Edouard should lose its tropical characteristics and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or less, due to the aforementioned cooler water and vertical shear. Through the remainder of the forecast, the large-scale models all agree upon Edouard becoming absorbed within an extensive mid-latitude baroclinic zone. The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be northeastward, or 035/15. Edouard will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward during the next 36 hours within the mid-tropospheric flow on the northwestern and northern side of a mid-Atlantic high pressure area. Afterward, an eastward motion is expected with further acceleration. A rather abrupt reduction in forward speed with a turn toward the east-southeast is expected as Edouard rounds the western periphery of a large baroclinic low situated to the west of the Iberian peninsula. The official NHC forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous forecast track at days 4 and 5, and is close to the TVCA multi-model consensus and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)/National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) project 133 member multi-model ensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 33.5N 56.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 38.4N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 40.2N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 40.5N 40.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 40.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/0000Z 38.5N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/0000Z 35.5N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts |
