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| #718491 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 18.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 A 0906 UTC SSMIS pass showed that the eyewall of Edouard had opened up on the southwest side and the circulation was becoming somewhat tilted with height. This tilt was confirmed by an ASCAT pass around 1230 UTC. The coverage of cold convective tops is gradually decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. Given that the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and experiencing increased vertical wind shear, steady weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Edouard should lose its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours and become post-tropical by that time. Global model fields show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by the end of the period, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is now eastward, or 085/22, as Edouard is currently located north of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The cyclone will move eastward and then southeastward around this ridge during the next 72 hours, and then turn southward by day 4. Most of the track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, with the continued exception of the GFDL and UKMET which show a more northeastward and southward motion, respectively. The new NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is similar to the previous advisory. The initial wind radii were modified based on data from the above-mentioned ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 39.9N 42.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/1200Z 37.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
