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| #718754 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 AM 19.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Edouard is weakening rapidly. Strong northwesterly shear has caused the low- and mid-level centers of the cyclone to decouple during the last 12 hours. The system has also been devoid of any deep convection for some time, and unless it returns, Edouard will be declared a post-tropical cyclone later today. Using a blend of Dvorak CI and Final T numbers, the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 40 kt. A 1214 UTC ASCAT pass showed believable 33-kt wind vectors in the southwestern quadrant, suggesting that somewhat higher winds are possible elsewhere in the southern half of the circulation. Edouard is expected to spin down further during the next couple of days due to a continuation of strong northwesterly shear and its passage over cold water. Extratropical transition is indicated by the global models in about 48 hours. The intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and now shows remnant low status sooner. Dissipation is expected in about 3 days. Edouard has significantly decelerated during the last 6-12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 110/03. The cyclone is expected to move eastward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so as it rounds the northern side of a low-level ridge to the south. A turn toward the southeast and south is shown after that time as the extratropical cyclone dives into the flow on the west side of a low pressure area over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only shifted a bit to the left but not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 39.5N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 39.6N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 39.5N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 21/0000Z 38.9N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z 37.3N 30.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman |
