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| #7223 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 03.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 ...CENTER OF DANGEROUS FRANCES APPROACHING ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR JUST EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT FRANCES HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...IT IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ELEUTHERA HAS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 81 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.9 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
