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| #723302 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 PM 10.Oct.2014) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the subtropical cyclone has become a little better organized since the previous advisory. Deep convection has gradually been developing closer to the low-level circulation center, and a maximum SFMR surface wind measured thus far by the aircraft has been 35 kt. Based on this information, plus a subtropical satellite classification of ST2.5/35 kt from TAFB, this system has been upgraded to Subtropical Storm Fay. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft will continue investigating Fay for the next hour or so. The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Fay is expected to move steadily northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located along 29N-30N latitude for the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, the cyclone is expected to recurve toward the northeast and accelerate when it becomes embedded in the strong mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching shortwave trough that is currently located near the U.S. east coast. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted somewhat to the west, especially the ECMWF model, but the models remain tightly clustered and in good agreement on the aforementioned track scenario, including absorption by a frontal system by 72 hours. The official track has been shifted to the left of the previous forecast and lies just to the west of and a little slower than the consensus track model TVCN. The large size of Fay, along with strong southeasterly to southerly vertical wind shear, should inhibit much in the way of intensification, despite the cyclone being over anomalously warm 29C sea-surface temperatures. If the recent trend in the development of inner-core convection continues, then Fay could transition into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours or so. However, this transition would have virtually no effect on the size of the tropical-storm-force wind field. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 24.7N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 28.5N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 31.7N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 33.7N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart |
