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| #723320 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:35 PM 10.Oct.2014) TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 64.2W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY LATE SATURDAY OR ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA BY SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
