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| #723322 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:40 PM 10.Oct.2014) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 As the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exited through an area of very deep convection in the northwestern quadrant of Fay, they found a peak 5,000 ft flight-level wind of 75 kt and peak SFMR winds in the 50-55 kt range. Based on these data, this special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 50 kt, which could be a bit conservative. The aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 1000 mb on their last pass through the broad center. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward through 36 hours, and shows the possibility for some additional strengthening before gradual weakening begins after 24 hours. Aircraft fixes and satellite imagery suggest that the initial motion is 340/10, a bit to the right of the previous track. Based on this, the 12-hour forecast position has been nudged a little to the east, but no changes were made to the NHC track at 24 hours and beyond. Note that this special advisory takes the place of the scheduled 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...intermediate advisory. The next advisory issued on Fay will be the full advisory package at 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2330Z 25.2N 64.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 28.5N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 31.7N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 33.7N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Brennan |
