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| #723393 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 11.Oct.2014) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 It appears that Fay is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics as the convection becomes more symmetric and getting closer to the center, but it is not quite tropical yet. There is a small window of opportunity for Fay to transition to a tropical cyclone during the next 6 to 12 hours before the shear increases further. There is no data to change the winds at this time, and the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. Another reconnaissance flight is scheduled for later this morning. Only a slight strengthening is anticipated before the system becomes absorbed by a strong cold front in about 48 hours as indicated by most of the global models. The initial motion estimate is 355/10. Fay continues to move around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, and is expected to continue northward for 6 to 12 more hours. It should then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 26.7N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 29.1N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 32.2N 63.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 35.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
