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| #723452 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 11.Oct.2014) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 65.3W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.27 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
