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| #723454 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 11.Oct.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 Tropical Storm Fay made the transition to a tropical cyclone around 0600 UTC based on AMSU and other satellite data that arrived after the previous advisory was released. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft confirmed this transition had occurred, when it made a pass through the northwestern and northern quadrants indicating that the radius of maximum wind had decreased to about 40 n mi. A blend of satellite intensity estimates, flight-level surface wind conversions, and reliable SFMR surface winds support increasing the intensity to 60 kt. The latest center dropsonde data suggests a central pressure of about 991 mb. The initial motion estimate is 355/14. Other than the center redeveloping a little farther west and closer to the deep convection, the overall track forecast and reasoning remains unchanged form the previous advisory. Fay is expected to continue to move northward and then northeastward around the western periphery of a strong mid-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in forward speed by 36 hours. The official track forecast closely follows the multi-model consensus TVCN. The strength and direction of the current vertical wind shear is forecast to remain unchanged for the next 24 hours, so no change in intensity indicated during that time. By 36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 40 kt from the southwest, which should induce a weakening trend until the cyclone is absorbed by a strong cold front in about 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 27.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 30.1N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 33.0N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 35.3N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart |
