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| #723513 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 11.Oct.2014) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 ...FAY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 65.4W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER AND THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TROPICAL STORM FAY LATER THIS EVENING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NOAA BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FAY...REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H AND A GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
