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| #723574 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 11.Oct.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 Fay's cloud pattern is that of a sheared cyclone, with deep convection bursting west of the center and little in the way of banding features. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening found peak flight-level winds of 79 kt at 5,000 ft, but these were in an area of limited deep convection southeast of the center. Several SFMR winds of around 55 kt in the convection support maintaining the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. The central pressure fell to 988 mb just before 0000 UTC, but ticked up to 989 mb on the final aircraft fix. Aircraft fixes indicate that Fay has turned to the east of due north, with an initial motion of 010/15. The cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward and then east-northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24 hours. The new NHC forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus and the previous official forecast, taking the center of Fay just east of Bermuda overnight tonight. This track will place the island in a region with some of the strongest winds and deepest convection associated with the storm. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as Fay will continue to be embedded within a high shear environment. By 36 hours, Fay should be absorbed into a frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 30.9N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 32.7N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 34.6N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
