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| #723696 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:47 PM 12.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 58.4W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...ST. MARTIN... AND ST. BARTHELEMY THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES... CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DESIRADE * LES SAINTES * MARIE GALANTE * ST.MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST.MAARTIN * SABA * ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS * NEVIS * MONTSERRAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND AFFECT THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
